Waukesha Freeman August 6, 2015 Page A6 Opinion
Walker will be the anti-Trump in tonight’s debate
And so the 2016 presidential campaign begins. Tonight, 10 Republican contenders for president will gather in Cleveland for a (loosely defined) debate. Among them will be Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a leading contender in the race.
Also among them is real estate developer and television personality Donald Trump, nouveau Republican. His sole claim to our attention is being obnoxious. Because Republicans are so desperate to have a “fighter” to lead them, Trump now sits atop the polls.
Much of the attention at the debate will be focused on Trump. Will he insult another war hero the way he insulted Sen. John McCain? Will he attack his Republican opponents personally? Will he say something that can be interpreted as racist?
The real test for Trump tonight is whether, in front of a broader audience, he can demonstrate any depth of understanding of the issues. It’s one thing to say wild and crazy things to feed the media frenzy; it’s another to actually show an understanding of the issues.
Trump’s newfound “Lonesome” Rhodes persona, the less-than-authentic truth teller from “A Face in the Crowd,” will eventually be exposed as shallow demagoguery. Unfortunately, with so many candidates and so little time for each, Trump may be able to forestall his inevitable decline.
What must Governor Scott Walker do? Let Walker be Walker. He is unlikely to attack his fellow Republicans except in the most roundabout manner. Scathing attacks or shouting above the others is just not in his DNA.
Here it works to his advantage. Walker is the anti-Trump. His personality and his experience provide a real contrast to the flamboyance and obnoxiousness of his top-polling rival.
The downside of Walker’s style is such that he could be overshadowed by the larger personalities duking it out on the stage. But Walker needs to remember that former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney also was overshadowed at the early debates in the last cycle.
Winning the early presidential debates is not about getting the biggest headlines the next day. Trump will get those no matter what. Winning for Walker is staying on message and appealing to the caucus goers in Iowa. Staying near the top of the polls will not require a memorable debate performance.
Walker also has the advantage over the other top-tier rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
Under normal circumstances, Bush would be the likely nominee. He had an impressive record in Florida as a conservative governor. He was an innovator on education issues. He is able to raise as much money as the Clintons, and do it without the ethical cloud.
However, let’s state the obvious. His last name isn’t Smith, it’s Bush. Aside from the natural aversion to dynastic politics, conservatives are not fond of the track record of the two previous presidents named Bush. Bush I raised taxes after promising not to. Bush II raised government spending.
Conservatives do not want another sequel.
Walker is unique in that he is able to bridge establishment Republicans, like those backing Bush, and conservative Republicans. Provided Walker does not make any major mistakes during the debate, he should still be able to make that bridge.
As for the rest of the candidates on that stage, they are going to try to make names for themselves by picking nits with the records of the leaders Bush and Walker. After three campaigns in four years, it’s unlikely Walker will be flustered by any of the attacks.
However, with only about seven to nine minutes total air time each, according to an estimate by the Washington Post, the lesser candidates are unlikely to do anything to move them into the upper tier. They are also unlikely to do enough damage to themselves to eliminate them from the race.
Attrition from the large field of candidates will only happen as lackluster fundraising makes candidacies less viable. There will be fewer candidates being competitive in the Iowa Caucus than on the stage in Cleveland, but tonight’s debate will not define the 2016 campaign.
(James Wigderson is a blogger publishing at http://www.wigderson.com and a Waukesha resident.)